The Kentucky Derby is notoriously tough to predict. Twenty horses, an unpredictable pace, and a dirt track that can radically shift with a single weather swing. Despite being among the most analyzed events in sports, the Derby remains one of the most challenging to handicap. Yet, that's exactly why it’s so compelling. This year, instead of chasing perfection, I set out to create a transparent, sophisticated predictive model. My goal wasn’t simply picking a winner; it was building...

The Kentucky Derby is notoriously tough to predict. Twenty horses, an unpredictable pace, and a dirt track that can radically shift with a single weather swing. Despite being among the most analyzed events in sports, the Derby remains one of the most challenging to handicap. Yet, that's exactly why it’s so compelling. This year, instead of chasing perfection, I set out to create a transparent, sophisticated predictive model. My goal wasn’t simply picking a winner; it was building...